A long shot is something that has a very low probability of success. You call a competitor a long shot in a race, a proposal a long shot in a pitch, or a candidate a long shot in an election when the odds are stacked against them but the outcome isn't impossible. The phrase shows up constantly in professional writing, yet many writers reach for it on instinct without quite knowing where it comes from or exactly when it fits.
Where "long shot" comes from
The phrase has two plausible origins, and both point in the same direction. The first comes from firearms. Before rifled barrels became standard, muskets and early pistols were wildly inaccurate beyond a short range. A shot fired from a long distance was unlikely to hit its target. The longer the shot, the lower the chance of success.
The second origin is horse racing, where a long shot is a horse offered at long odds by the bookmaker. Long odds reflect a low probability of winning. A horse priced at 50 to 1 is a long shot: technically capable of winning, but unlikely to. Both origins fix the meaning cleanly: a long shot is an attempt where the probability of success is low.
How the phrase is used today
Long shot appears across three main contexts in modern English.
- As a noun: "The merger bid is a long shot." Here, the noun describes an attempt or outcome with low odds.
- As a modifier: "It's a long-shot proposal." The hyphen connects the two words when they modify a noun together.
- In the negative: "Not by a long shot." This fixed phrase means "not at all" or "not even close," and it's the idiom's most emphatic form.
In business writing, the phrase is useful precisely because it quantifies expectation without requiring an actual number. Saying "this is a long shot" tells a reader the odds are genuinely poor, not just slightly challenging. That's different from calling something difficult or ambitious.
Long shot vs dark horse: what's the difference?
Writers sometimes confuse long shot with dark horse, and the two phrases do overlap. Both describe an underdog. The distinction is subtle but real. A dark horse is an unknown or underestimated competitor, one whose chances are low because nobody has assessed them properly. A long shot is a competitor whose chances are known to be low. The dark horse has hidden potential; the long shot is just unlikely to succeed regardless.
If a startup nobody has heard of pitches against established firms, it's a dark horse. If a startup everyone knows has struggled for three years pitches the same room, it's a long shot.
The hyphen question
Whether to hyphenate "long shot" trips up writers regularly. The rule follows standard compound-modifier logic: hyphenate when the phrase modifies a noun directly before it, and leave it open otherwise.
Correct: "It was a long shot." No hyphen because the phrase follows the verb and doesn't sit before a noun. Also correct: "It was a long-shot bid." Hyphen because "long-shot" modifies "bid" directly. The same principle applies to related phrases you'll find on this site, including the discussion of "well known" and hyphenation, where the rule works identically.
Common mistakes with "long shot"
The most frequent error is using long shot when the odds aren't actually that bad. If something has a reasonable chance of working, calling it a long shot undersells it and can mislead the reader. Reserve the phrase for situations where failure is genuinely the more likely outcome.
A second mistake is confusing "not by a long shot" with "not by a long stretch." These are separate idioms. "Not by a long stretch" means something isn't quite enough or doesn't quite reach. "Not by a long shot" means something is nowhere near the mark. They're close in flavour but not interchangeable in precise writing.
Writers also occasionally spell it "longshot" as a single word. The single-word form has crept into informal use, but in standard business writing, two words is the correct form when it's a noun or predicate phrase. The hyphenated form, as noted above, applies only before a noun.
Using "long shot" in professional writing
The phrase fits well in reports, proposals, and strategy documents where you need to signal low probability without resorting to hedged abstractions. "This initiative faces long odds" is vague. "This is a long shot" is direct. Readers understand it immediately.
That directness is its value. Don't dilute it by applying it to things that merely require effort. A long shot is unlikely to succeed. Not hard. Not uncertain. Unlikely. Keep that distinction firm and the phrase stays useful.
One practical note: in formal documents aimed at senior stakeholders, you may prefer to pair the phrase with a probability figure if one exists. "This acquisition is a long shot, with fewer than 3 comparable deals closing at this valuation in the past five years" gives the idiom real weight.